[Ayyavazi]

- 29 May 2016 16:49 #174542 Hello all,

I've recently been boss hunting to get the EV training items that are exclusively available as tier 3 drops. I've been at it for approximately 40 hours and have only just got my 5th (of the 6th). So, I decided to do some math based on the limited information I have regarding the tier drop system.

Based on that math, my suggestion is this: there should be an alternative method of acquisition for any item that only appears through tier 3 drops or for Master Ball PokeLoot (except Masterball). I don't think it should be easy, so crafting recipes are probably not a good solution.

However, having them appear in random sellers with high costs, or find-able as rare loot in dungeon chests and the like might also work. Those loot lists are already large enough that finding everything would still be hard and time consuming, but still offer a few more ways than just boss grinding.

I've put my math work below, if anyone is interested.

Best,

Ayyavazi

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First, we'll assume that you can face a boss every 10 minutes. That's pretty ambitious, since sometimes it seems to take 15 or more for one to spawn at a ghost tower, but other times it takes only seconds. That means that over the course of 40 hours, 240 bosses have been fought. Seems like a lot.

Now, Green and Blue bosses drop 0 Tier 3's, Reds drop 1, and Yellow's drop 2. That means that if boss type is random, you get 0.75 Tier 3 items per boss fight ([0+0+1+2]/2 = 0.75).

So, over the course of my 240 bosses, I have received 180 Tier 3 items. In actuality I have received fewer than this, but that may be due to slower boss spawn rate than my assumption or due to some other randomization issue with drops that I am unaware of. Alternatively, I could be exceptionally unlucky, but its unlikely, statistically speaking.

Now, if I have counted right, there are 112 possible Tier 3 drops. Assuming they are randomly awarded, one would think I'd have 5-7 of each drop by now. However, that's not actually how statistical math works. let's say I want a Master Ball (I got 2 out of all my drops). There is a 1:112 chance of me getting one in one red boss, or 2 1:112 chances in a yellow boss run (which is subtly different from a 2:112 chance). That means that for a yellow boss, the chance of me NOT getting a Master Ball is 111:112 X 111:112. This ends up being pretty high, about 98%. So to determine the chance of getting a Master Ball in any given number of boss runs, you calculate the chance of not getting one in those runs and subtract from 100%.

So, for my 180 hypothetical Tier 3 drops, its 111:112 to the 180th power. This gives you a net result of 19.90% chance of not getting a single Master Ball (or, an 80.10% chance of getting 1). This is the same chance for any given item in the Tier 3 list. Now I got 2 master balls, but not a single Power Anklet (the EV item I'm missing).

So, after 40 hours of boss hunting, you have about an 80% chance of getting any given tier 3 item. This seems pretty good, but if you think about it, there are 112 items. If you only get an 80% chance for each one, you only generally get 80% of the 112 drops (about 89, rounded up). You're still missing 23 of them, a significant number.

That's why I think there needs to be an alternative method. 40 hours of dedicated work is enough to get almost anything in Minecraft. Hell, in 40 hours I can have a full set of enchanted diamond gear with blocks of diamonds to spare without trying particularly hard. Nothing should be harder than that to get, unless you want the acquisition curve for Tier 3 items to resemble Legendary drops in World of Warcraft or something.

[MrMasochism]

- 30 May 2016 02:52 #174591 What you are missing with that calculation is item value and shopkeepers

[Ayyavazi]

- 30 May 2016 08:54 #174606 Hello Mr. Masochism,

I'm not sure I understand what you mean by that. Are you saying that the items are available, or that the earned value of sold items outweighs the items not gained, or something else?

Cheers,

Ayyavazi